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US Treasuries: Is pricing in more hikes driving bear flattening? – TD Securities
A sharp bear flattening in US Treasuries followed stronger US CPI and hawkish remarks from Governor Waller, with markets pricing in further Fed tightening, according to TD Securities. As front-end yields rose and breakevens widened, the bank cautioned that highly negative BE carry in early 2027 could weigh on the inflation-linked asset class.
Could BE carry headwinds follow front-end repricing?
"Rates: Treasuries bear flattened sharply as the market penciled in more rate hikes."
"Markets leaned into Governor Waller's comments from earlier in the session around potentially needing a "catch up" 50bp hike, bringing pricing for hikes in December higher from 25bp to around 28bp and increasing pricing for hikes in 2027 to 45bp from 34bp."
"This pressured the front-end sharply higher, flattening the curve and moving BEs wider."
"Markets will be waiting on further Fedspeak to confirm whether other FOMC members agree with Waller before pushing December pricing higher."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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