Below 0.6850: Australian Dollar extends losses to fresh low since January against bullish USD

• A third consecutive day of selling weighs on AUD/USD as the USD builds on its post-US CPI gains.
• April 2025 highs come into view for the USD as firmer Fed rate hike expectations and geopolitical risks drive gains.
• Further Aussie losses remain in prospect as the RBA’s dovish shift adds to downward pressure.

AUD/USD is trading near 0.6830, down 0.25% on the day. The pair touched its lowest level since January in Thursday’s early European session. It is declining for a third consecutive day, also recording its fifth day of losses in the past five. A combination of adverse factors leaves spot prices looking vulnerable.

Since the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) dovish rate hike earlier this November, the Australian Dollar (AUD) has lagged. The decision featured a 6-3 vote split and dropped explicit guidance on further tightening. By contrast, the US Dollar (USD) is advancing for a third consecutive day. Growing conviction that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise borrowing costs again in December is adding to pressure on AUD/USD.

Tuesday’s stronger-than-expected US consumer inflation data for October, together with hawkish remarks from several Fed officials, reinforced those expectations. Traders have also begun to price in a possible outsized 50-basis-point (bps) increase next month. Alongside geopolitical risks from the US-Iran confrontation over the Strait of Hormuz, this continues to support the safe-haven US Dollar and reinforces the bearish near-term outlook for AUD/USD.

Reports indicate that US forces launched a series of strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island. Tehran, meanwhile, attacked ship navigation systems on the Omani island of Didamar at the entrance to the Persian Gulf. Hopes of a diplomatic solution to the ongoing conflict were further dampened by remarks from Iran’s Armed Forces Deputy Chief of Staff Brigadier General Kioumars Heidari. He said Tehran had closed the strategic waterway and would reopen it only on the orders of the leader of the revolution.

The next focus for traders is the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims release. Together with comments from Fed officials and developments in the Middle East crisis, the data might move the US Dollar and give AUD/USD fresh impetus. The fundamental backdrop nevertheless appears firmly supportive of bearish traders. Any recovery attempt could therefore attract selling and is more likely to fade quickly.

AUD/USD: daily price chart

0.6900: First Resistance in AUD/USD Technical Outlook

A break below 0.6900 has reinforced the near-term bearish bias in AUD/USD, following its recent failure to establish itself above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7026. The 0.6900 level now represents the first significant resistance. Reclaiming it would be necessary to temper the immediate bearish tone and open the way for a retest of the 100-day SMA at 0.7026.

(An AI tool assisted in preparing the technical analysis in this article. Learn more.)