US midterms: Democrats advance as Bitcoin struggles to benefit from US Dollar weakness

$76,000 gives way as Bitcoin slips on Wednesday. Mounting selling pressure puts its 200-day EMA near $76,501 to the test.
101.3 marks the US Dollar Index's early Wednesday decline as uncertainty surrounds the US midterm elections.
Early results put Democrats on course for a sweeping win across both houses.

Nearly 2% has been wiped off Bitcoin (BTC) on Wednesday. Trading below $76,000, it is testing the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) baseline near $76,501. The retreat coincides with a weaker US Dollar (DXY), despite dollar weakness usually supporting risk-sensitive assets. Selling pressure also comes amid the US midterm elections, with early results indicating that Democrats are leading gains in both houses.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

US midterms: Democrats on course for a sweep

218 seats in the House of Representatives and 51 in the Senate are needed for Democrats to secure outright majorities. Early US midterm results put the party ahead in gains across the US Senate and the House of Representatives.

Kalshi’s forecast puts the probability of Trump losing control of both houses at 100%. Social sentiment likewise favours a Democratic sweep in these midterm elections.

2026 midterm election forecasts. Source: Kalshi

101.3 US Dollar Index offers Bitcoin no support

A fresh 30-day low of 101.3 reflects selling pressure on the US Dollar Index on Wednesday. Lower US Treasury yields are also weighing on the US Dollar: the 2-year bond yield has fallen 5 basis points (bps) to 4.566%, while the benchmark 10-year yield has dropped 6 bps to 4.90%, according to an earlier report by FXStreet. The weakness coincides with uncertainty over the US midterms. As Republicans lose control, President Trump's fiscal and economic agenda faces gridlock.

Risk-sensitive assets such as Bitcoin usually benefit when the US Dollar weakens. Yet BTC is under selling pressure too, trading below $76,000 after a 2% decline on Wednesday. Its failure to benefit from the weaker dollar suggests that midterm risks carry more weight than the currency's fall.

A close below the 200-day EMA at $76,500 remains a risk for BTC and could reinforce bearish control. The nearest downside support lies at the horizontal level around $75,545. A break would bring the next bearish targets of $70,505 and $67,292 into view.

The first indication of easing selling pressure would be a daily close above the 200-day EMA at $76,500. Beyond that, the 50-day EMA at $79,965 presents stronger resistance.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

US midterms: key questions answered

US midterms: which elections take place?

Held midway through a president's four-year term, the US midterms are federal elections. All 435 House of Representatives seats and roughly one-third of Senate seats are contested. In many states, voters also elect governors and other state and local officials.

2026 midterms: the election timetable

Tuesday, 3 November 2026 is Election Day. Under federal law, voting takes place on the Tuesday following November's first Monday. Many states already have early voting and postal voting under way.

US midterms: what is at stake?

Control of both chambers of Congress for the final two years of President Donald Trump's term is determined by these elections. The party holding a majority sets legislative priorities and appoints committee leaders. In the Senate, it also controls the confirmation of judges and senior officials.

2026 midterms: is the presidency being contested?

No. Presidential elections take place every four years, with the next scheduled for November 2028. Often regarded as a referendum on the incumbent president's party, midterms have historically tended to cost that party seats in the House.

2026 midterms: potential US dollar impact

A limited, temporary US Dollar reaction is what most analysts anticipate, rather than a sustained trend. Markets widely regard a divided Congress as the base case, with that outcome already partly reflected in prices. The response in Treasury yields may be more pronounced. Results that increase expectations of fiscal stimulus generally support yields and the US Dollar; by contrast, gridlock restricting new spending can weigh on both. Disputes over funding or the debt ceiling can also briefly support safe-haven demand for the Dollar. Across six to twelve months, economic growth and Federal Reserve policy have greater influence than the election result.

Midterm elections: historical stock-market performance

Historically, US equities have tended to struggle ahead of midterms before strengthening afterwards. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen over the 12 months following every midterm election: 19 out of 19, averaging a gain of about 15%. Analysts attribute this pattern to the reduction in uncertainty after results emerge. Past performance does not guarantee future returns, and some strategists caution that elevated valuations in 2026 could challenge that record.

Divided Congress: implications for markets

With gridlock reducing the likelihood of far-reaching tax, spending and regulatory changes, markets have frequently reacted positively to divided government. During Republican presidencies, the S&P 500 has historically performed well in the years after midterms that divide control of Congress. Funding deadlines, debt-ceiling disputes and congressional investigations remain risks that can increase short-term volatility.