20-day EMA: USD/JPY Holds Nearby | Price Forecast

157.90 in sight as USD/JPY falls amid continued US Dollar underperformance.
Republican policy continuity is at risk following the US Democrats’ midterm election victory.
A Fed interest rate increase at the December policy meeting remains a firm expectation among investors.

USD/JPY is down 0.3% near 157.90 in Thursday’s European session. The Japanese Yen (JPY) is strengthening against the US Dollar (USD). Selling pressure on the pair reflects the US Dollar’s underperformance, driven by concerns that United States (US) Republicans would struggle to maintain their policies following their midterm election setback against Democrats.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

US Dollar: Today’s Performance

The New Zealand Dollar was the strongest performer against the US Dollar (USD) today. Percentage moves in the US Dollar against the major currencies listed are set out below.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.29%	-0.16%	-0.32%	-0.12%	-0.17%	-0.41%	-0.33%
EUR	0.29%		0.13%	-0.05%	0.16%	0.12%	-0.14%	-0.06%
GBP	0.16%	-0.13%		-0.17%	0.03%	-0.01%	-0.25%	-0.19%
JPY	0.32%	0.05%	0.17%		0.21%	0.17%	-0.10%	-0.01%
CAD	0.12%	-0.16%	-0.03%	-0.21%		-0.04%	-0.30%	-0.22%
AUD	0.17%	-0.12%	0.01%	-0.17%	0.04%		-0.23%	-0.17%
NZD	0.41%	0.14%	0.25%	0.10%	0.30%	0.23%		0.10%
CHF	0.33%	0.06%	0.19%	0.01%	0.22%	0.17%	-0.10%

Percentage movements between major currencies appear in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. Selecting the US Dollar on the left and following that row across to the Japanese Yen, for instance, gives the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote) in the corresponding cell.

A decline of 0.25% leaves the US Dollar Index (DXY) near 101.24 at the time of writing. The index, which measures the Greenback against six major currencies, remains close to the monthly low of 101.10 recorded the day before.

A Democratic sweep would likely “lead to gridlock on the debt ceiling, a prolonged government shutdown next year”, according to analysts at ING. The bank also cautioned that “fears of tougher regulation could weigh on Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks (we’ve recently seen how that can hit the greenback)”.

Friday’s release of October US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is now the focus for investors on the economic front. The employment figures are expected to materially influence expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy.

157.90 EMA in Focus: USD/JPY Technical Outlook

At 157.93 on the daily chart, USD/JPY is trading close to its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 157.90. This leaves the short-term outlook broadly neutral.

Neither buyers nor sellers have clear control for now. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 50.66, close to its midpoint, the indicator suggests little directional conviction following recent price swings.

The 20-day EMA near 157.90 provides the first downside support. A breach would open the way towards recent lows if selling intensifies. The supplied dataset identifies no nearby technical resistance on the upside. Traders may therefore consider psychological round numbers and earlier swing highs above the current price as the next potential areas of selling pressure during a recovery.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Data Release

Nonfarm Payrolls: US Jobs Data

Published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Nonfarm Payrolls reports how many new jobs were created across US non-agricultural businesses in the preceding month. Monthly payroll changes can fluctuate sharply, and substantial revisions to the figures can also cause volatility in the Forex market. A strong reading is generally regarded as positive for the US Dollar (USD), while a weak reading is viewed as negative. However, revisions to earlier months and the Unemployment Rate carry as much relevance as the headline number. The market response consequently hinges on investors’ assessment of the BLS report in its entirety.

Find out more.

Next publication: Fri 6 Nov 2026 13:30

Release frequency: Every month

Consensus forecast: 65K

Prior reading: 29K

Data source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Why traders watch the jobs report

For forex traders, the US monthly jobs report is widely regarded as the most important economic indicator. Published on the first Friday after the reporting month, it shows the change in employment, which closely tracks the economy’s overall performance and draws scrutiny from policymakers. Labour market developments inform Federal Reserve policy decisions because full employment is one of its mandates. Those decisions, in turn, affect currencies. Although several leading indicators help shape forecasts, Nonfarm Payrolls often catch markets off guard, generating substantial volatility. A reading above the consensus generally supports the USD.