Below $85.00: WTI slips on hopes for Ukraine peace talks and oversupply concerns

• $84.75 is the level WTI approaches as momentum fades in Thursday’s early European session.
• Two days of peace negotiations in Abu Dhabi produced agreement between Russia and Ukraine on a major prisoner exchange.
• A 9 million-barrel increase in crude oil inventories was recorded in the week ended November 5, according to API.

WTI is trading near $84.75 early in Thursday’s European session. The US crude oil benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), is declining as US inventories rise and hopes build for progress in peace negotiations concerning the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine.

A major prisoner exchange was agreed by Russian and Ukrainian negotiators after two days of peace talks in Abu Dhabi ended on Wednesday, Reuters reported. Significant differences remain on key issues, notably territory, according to US mediators. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky voiced hope for concrete results towards resolving the war this year.

Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist of Nissan Securities Investment, a unit of Nissan Securities, said: "Markets are falling on expectations that behind-the-scenes efforts are underway to secure a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine and that it is unlikely the Iran war will escalate ahead of the US-China summit next week,"

Kikukawa added: "However, given the uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, the markets are unlikely to suffer a significant collapse,"

Oversupply concerns intensified after a substantial increase in US crude oil stocks last week. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a rise of 9 million barrels for the week ending November 5, following a decline of 5.267 barrels a week earlier. That contrasted with market expectations for a 1 million-barrel drawdown.

US-Iran diplomatic uncertainty keeps oil trading volatile

Oil markets, according to analysts at Commerzbank, "remain volatile as investors assess whether the Democrats' control of Congress could accelerate diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran conflict." The analysts also note that "reports that Iran is reviewing proposals concerning its nuclear programme offered some encouragement, although no comprehensive agreement has been announced and risks to Gulf shipping remain." In this environment, Commerzbank points out that "Brent crude oil prices rose 5% to USD99.33."

Technical Analysis: 100-day SMA Caps WTI as Bearish Bias Persists

Below both its key moving average structure and the Bollinger Bands’ middle line, WTI US Oil remains in a corrective phase on the daily chart. The near-term outlook therefore stays bearish. The 100-day simple moving average (SMA) limits gains, with initial downside protection provided by the lower Bollinger Band. At around 34, the Relative Strength Index (14) remains in oversold territory. This suggests selling momentum is easing, but does not yet signal a bullish reversal.

The 100-day SMA at $86.80 is the first resistance level, followed by the middle Bollinger Band near $94.95. A stronger recovery would bring the upper band at $107.45 into view as a more distant hurdle. Initial support sits at the lower Bollinger Band around $82.45. A decisive move below it would strengthen the bearish bias and leave scope for further losses over the coming sessions.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)