Billions in fund flows at risk: Bitcoin price forecast as BTC faces pressure following MSCI’s removal of Strategy from global indices

• Bitcoin trades below $73,800 on Thursday. The cryptocurrency remains under pressure, extending its losses this week to over 1.5%.
• Strategy will be removed from MSCI’s global indices, the index provider announced on Wednesday.
• Withdrawals from US-listed BTC spot ETFs reached $299.90 million on Wednesday, extending the outflow streak to a fifth consecutive day.

Bitcoin (BTC) trades below $73,800 on Thursday. Its decline this week exceeds 1.5%, with selling pressure persisting. Sentiment turned more bearish following Wednesday’s announcement by global index provider MSCI that Strategy (MSTR) and other companies holding BTC would be removed from its global indices. The decision puts billions in fund flows at risk. Institutional appetite has also deteriorated this week. Spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) registered nearly $300 million in outflows on Wednesday, their fifth consecutive day of withdrawals, constraining the leading cryptocurrency’s recovery.

Billions in Outflows at Risk From Strategy’s Index Removal

Strategy faces removal from MSCI’s global indices following the index provider’s announcement on Wednesday. With 850,364 BTC on its balance sheet, Strategy is the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin.

To align their portfolios with the changes, index funds tracking the affected benchmarks may have to sell their Strategy shares by November 30. MSCI’s decision applies directly to the company’s shares, not its Bitcoin holdings. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency could also feel the effects because Strategy operates the largest Bitcoin treasury.

The exclusion list also names Tokyo-listed Metaplanet, another company that accumulates and holds Bitcoin, alongside UK-based uranium investment company Yellow Cake. Removal from the MSCI USA and MSCI World indices takes effect on December 1.

Potential forced selling could depress the shares of these BTC-holding companies and, indirectly, sentiment towards Bitcoin. These businesses offer institutions a route to BTC exposure. Prolonged pressure on their share prices could therefore erode confidence in corporate Bitcoin treasury strategies, creating a further obstacle to BTC’s recovery.

Institutional Bitcoin Demand Continues to Fade

Bitcoin’s institutional demand has weakened further this week. According to SoSoValue, BTC spot ETFs posted net outflows of $299.90 million on Wednesday, extending a withdrawal streak that began last week to five consecutive days. Continued and accelerating outflows through the rest of this week could increase pressure on BTC and deepen its price correction.

Bitcoin’s Next Move Hinges on Nasdaq Recovery

A widening performance gap between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq underscores the divergence in these two risk-sensitive assets this week. BTC advanced only 0.69% on Monday against the Nasdaq’s 3.55% rally. The pattern continued on Wednesday: Bitcoin rose a modest 0.30%, while the technology-heavy index gained nearly 2%.

A K33 report found that Bitcoin moved in the same direction as the Nasdaq over the subsequent 20-day period in all five observed cases. In a broader sample of 16 strong Nasdaq rebounds after market corrections, BTC rose in eight of the nine cases in which the Nasdaq extended its gains (Figure 15). The median return was 2.9%. By contrast, Bitcoin fell in all seven cases where the Nasdaq rebound faltered (Figure 16), with a median loss of 21%. Whether the Nasdaq can maintain its recovery therefore appears crucial to Bitcoin’s near-term prospects.

While the technology-heavy index has recouped almost all of last week’s losses, Bitcoin is down 1.5% so far this week. The gap demonstrates BTC’s relative weakness even as appetite for equity risk improves. Historical observations suggest that, should the Nasdaq recovery falter, Bitcoin could suffer substantially larger losses than the technology index. 

A lasting equity rebound, by contrast, could lend Bitcoin support. Even so, BTC’s recent relative weakness suggests that improved risk appetite may not immediately deliver a stronger recovery in the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin Technical Outlook: $73,727 Leaves Bears in Control

At $73,727 on Thursday, Bitcoin retains a bearish near-term bias below its key Exponential Moving Averages. Overhead resistance comes from the 200-day EMA at $76,384, the 100-day EMA at $77,411 and the 50-day EMA at $78,701. Their positioning suggests the latest rebound remains constrained within a broader correction. 

Momentum indicators support that assessment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to 34, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains negative. Both suggest sellers still have the advantage despite occasional rebounds.

Any advance would first encounter the 200-day EMA around $76,384, ahead of the 100-day EMA near $77,411 and the 50-day EMA at about $78,701. Together, these averages create a concentrated resistance zone that buyers must reclaim to relieve downward pressure. Beyond them, horizontal resistance at $85,000 presents a more significant obstacle, where previous selling interest could return. 

With no nearby support identified, a break beneath current levels would point BTC towards the psychological support area around $70,000 before the price stabilises.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)