• US-Iran agreement boosts risk appetite, sending WTI sharply lower.
• Fed decision under Warsh may reset policy communication.
• Burnham by-election win could revive UK fiscal concerns.

The Pound Sterling advances by 0.31% on Monday as risk appetite improves following an agreement reached by the US and Iran, which will be signed on June 19 in Geneva, Switzerland. Both parties announced the deal, a headwind for the US Dollar, which fares well amid geopolitical uncertainty and inflationary scenarios. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3436.

GBP/USD gains as peace breakthrough pressures Dollar and crude

Financial markets cheered Washington and Tehran’s decision to end hostilities as US equity markets soared while Oil prices tanked, with WTI falling over 4.40%. The Greenback, which has been closely correlated with WTI, is down 0.28% according to the US Dollar Index. The DXY, which measures the buck’s value against a basket of six peers, is at 99.52.

The agreement will open the Strait of Hormuz, and it’s said that the US Navy blockade of Iran will also be lifted, freeing one-fifth of the global total Oil production.

Last week’s US inflation data ─on the consumer and producer side─was still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, which could trigger some action by the central bank. Nevertheless, an end to the war could open the door to holding rates unchanged throughout the year, as last week investors expected a rate hike.

On Wednesday, the Fed will reveal its monetary policy decision ─ the first under Warsh's lead ─, followed by his press conference. Eyes will be on how he communicates, the balance sheet, and the stance he takes as he begins his four-year tenure at the central bank.

This week, the UK schedule will feature local elections, in which the main challenger to Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Andy Burnham, is expected to win the Makerfield by-election, which would secure his place in parliament.

In that outcome, uncertainty about Burnham’s fiscal plans might push Sterling lower, amid speculation of additional spending, which would pressure the British Pound lower, as investors would demand a higher premium in the bond market.

Alongside elections, the release of inflation and jobs data will be crucial ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy decision on June 18, in which the central bank is expected to hold rates unchanged.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3430, keeping a mildly bearish bias as it sits below the latest simple moving average cluster around 1.3472 while clinging to an underlying rising trend-line support drawn from the 1.3159 area. The Relative Strength Index (14) hovers just below the 50 line, suggesting neutral-to-soft momentum, which hints that any rebound attempts could remain capped unless the pair can reclaim the nearby moving average resistance and break above the overhanging downward trend-line structure.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the simple moving average cluster near 1.3472, with the broader descending trend-line structure reinforcing a supply zone just overhead. On the downside, the rising trend-line from 1.3159 acts as the primary support area beneath spot, and a sustained break below this structural floor would likely open the door to a deeper pullback as sellers attempt to extend control in the near term.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)