Euro revisits monthly low against US Dollar in countdown to Fed’s policy
- EUR/USD slides to the monthly low near 1.1362 amid caution ahead of the Fed’s policy.
- Investors await German and Eurozone preliminary HICP data for July.
- ECB’s Kazimir stresses the need for at least one interest rate hike amid high inflationary pressures.
The Euro (EUR) falls to its monthly low at around 1.1362 against the US Dollar (USD) during the early European trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair weakens as the US Dollar extends gains amid caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher, closer to its monthly high of around 101.59.
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.24% | 0.34% | 0.05% | 0.22% | 0.48% | 0.66% | 0.37% | |
| EUR | -0.24% | 0.08% | -0.19% | -0.02% | 0.25% | 0.42% | 0.13% | |
| GBP | -0.34% | -0.08% | -0.39% | -0.07% | 0.17% | 0.33% | 0.04% | |
| JPY | -0.05% | 0.19% | 0.39% | 0.16% | 0.43% | 0.61% | 0.23% | |
| CAD | -0.22% | 0.02% | 0.07% | -0.16% | 0.24% | 0.44% | 0.15% | |
| AUD | -0.48% | -0.25% | -0.17% | -0.43% | -0.24% | 0.17% | -0.12% | |
| NZD | -0.66% | -0.42% | -0.33% | -0.61% | -0.44% | -0.17% | -0.29% | |
| CHF | -0.37% | -0.13% | -0.04% | -0.23% | -0.15% | 0.12% | 0.29% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
In the policy meeting, the Fed is highly expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 62% chance that the Fed will maintain the status quo.
Investors will pay close attention to the Fed’s monetary policy statement and Chairman Kevin Warsh’s press conference to get fresh cues regarding inflation and the economic outlook. The Fed is unlikely to deliver any remarks regarding the monetary policy outlook, as Warsh said in its last policy press conference that “so-called forward guidance is not well-suited in the current policy juncture”.
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the odds of the Fed delivering an interest rate hike in the next policy meeting in September are 80.8%.
On the Eurozone front, investors await the German and Eurozone preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for July, which will be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively.
Investors will closely track the inflation data as it is expected to significantly influence European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate expectations. On Monday, ECB Governing Council member and Governor of the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS), Peter Kazimir, said that at least one interest rate hike will be needed to contain elevated inflationary pressures.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
