ING’s Min Joo Kang notes that South Korea’s March consumer price inflation rose modestly, with government fuel caps and food vouchers limiting the impact of higher Oil costs. Core inflation eased slightly, but ING expects recent energy and currency moves to push prices higher in coming months. The Bank of Korea is projected to stay cautious as it monitors external shocks.

Oil and currency seen lifting prices

"South Korea’s consumer price inflation rose 2.2% year-on-year in March (vs 2.0% in February, 2.3% market consensus). On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.3%, below the market consensus of 0.6%. Rising global oil prices explained most of the increase, though the impact was smaller than expected."

"Government measures such as the fuel price cap and food vouchers helped to reduce the impact on consumers. Transportation prices rose the most, by 5% YoY, compared to the previous month’s 1.1%. But food prices declined to 0.5% from the previous month’s 2.1%."

"The March figures indicate that the uptick in commodity prices has not yet broadened to other products or services. Excluding food and energy, core inflation edged down to 2.2% (vs 2.3% in February, 2.1% market consensus)."

"Although today’s inflation increase came in below expectations, we expect the recent rise in energy prices to exert a stronger influence in the months ahead. Fuel costs continued to rise despite the price cap. We also expect currency impacts to feed through to domestic prices in the coming months."

"Price pressures remain relatively contained due to government support, even as domestic demand is poised to weaken. Thus, the Bank of Korea is expected to keep its policy rate at 2.5% at the April meeting. The BoK will likely take a wait-and-see approach as it evaluates whether external shocks are contained or intensify."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)