Bitcoin Approaches $80,000 Intraday, Hitting A Three-Month High, While Gold Strengthens In Tandem! Why Are Both Safe-Haven And Risk Assets Rising Together?

On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of its long-term Treasury repurchase program. Secretary Bescent confirmed the next day that the scale of a single transaction could exceed $4 billion, doubling the previous cap. The direct effect of this operation is to lower long-term yields and inject liquidity into the market. For Bitcoin, which does not generate interest, the opportunity cost of holding it decreases. But the deeper transmission lies in market psychology: using fiscal funds to buy back domestic government bonds is interpreted by the market as a variant of "fiscal deficit monetization," raising expectations of dollar depreciation.

It was during this window that on the afternoon of August 24, Becent announced a new round of "economic isolation" sanctions against Iran, with the sanctions list covering both digital assets and gold for the first time. The original intent of the sanctions was to cut off Iran's financing channels, but the market interpreted a different meaning: as the dollar system increasingly becomes a policy tool, "credit substitutes" outside the dollar become more valuable. CoinAge founder Jack Guzman put it bluntly: "Bitcoin has now been established as a form of depreciation trading. When governments intervene in the market, capital ultimately flows into assets like Bitcoin. "

Safe-haven assets and high-risk assets have surged in tandem. Behind this seemingly contradictory combination, a main thread is emerging: market concerns over the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy are pushing funds toward assets outside the dollar. The trigger for this rally was precisely the Treasury's "bailout" move—a long-term bond buyback program known by the market as "quasi-QE," originally intended to lower long-term interest rates, but left investors with a deeper question: When the total U.S. federal debt surpasses $40 trillion, how much of a "risk-free asset" will be left?

Institutional Money Is Accelerating Its Entry Into The Market

For the week ending August 21, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of about $1.9 billion, marking the largest weekly inflow in 10 months; Including Ethereum ETFs, total crypto ETF inflows for the week reached $2.6 billion. The ETF asset size then expanded to $96.1 billion, a weekly increase of 25.4%.

Signals of institutionalization go beyond just the numbers of funds. Large institutions such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and Morgan Stanley are proactively promoting Bitcoin ETFs to clients. Bridgewater founder Dalio recently publicly suggested that investors should allocate 10%-15% of their assets to gold while increasing their Bitcoin holdings. He warned that the U.S. federal debt crisis could erupt within three years. Regulatory winds are also blowing simultaneously: on August 19, Trump met with crypto industry executives and publicly urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act, which provides a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, with a vote expected in September.

A notable contrast is that, despite record-high weekly inflows, Bitcoin ETFs have remained net outflows year-to-date, totaling about $2.9 billion. In other words, this rally has not yet bought back all the chips sold throughout the year; institutional entry is real, but there is still no confirmation signal of "long-term sustained inflows."

On the gold side, this round of price increases is not driven by declining real yields, but rather by Treasury policy interventions that highlight U.S. debt risks, reactivating gold's "sovereign credit hedge" attributesEven though U.S. Treasury yields returned to high levels the next day, gold prices remained firm. Liquidity also confirmed: Data from the World Gold Council shows that last week gold ETFs saw a net inflow of $6.381 billion, with SPDR Gold Trust increasing its holdings by nearly 50 tons in one month. UBS raised its gold price target for the next 12 months to $5,400, citing that "investors are actively seeking alternatives to bonds and dollar assets."

But Risks Also Exist

The bulls' logic is consistent: the TGA account backs up trillions in US Treasuries, interest rates are falling, the US dollar is losing credibility, and combined with institutional ETF regulation and clearer regulation, Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative is being accepted by mainstream capital. Bears believe that technically, Bitcoin has entered an overbought zone, with concentrated selling pressure from previously trapped positions above $74,000–$78,000; in this surge, short positions were liquidated in two days exceeded $3.1 billion, with Bitcoin alone reaching $1.44 billion in a single day — the biggest risk in a short squeeze is that once the short positions are cleared, buying power also dries up.

History also serves as a warning. At the beginning of this year, after setting a record high of $5,300, gold fell to around $4,000 in June, and after a sharp rise, the 20% drawdown came quickly and deeply. Bitcoin has had similar scenarios throughout the year— the 70,000 level in March, the 60,000 support in June, and every breakout was accompanied by confirmation of pullbacks.

There are three observation points to follow. First, at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on August 28, the new Fed Chair Washey will make his debut. The July meeting minutes were neutrally hawkish, with several officials clearly stating that if inflation does not fall and further rate hikes are needed, any hawkish signal on the interest rate path could disrupt the pace of "depreciation trading." Second, whether the CLARITY Act passes in September will determine whether the clarity of crypto asset regulation is a tangible positive or just a hopeful expectation; Third, Becent did not send any further debt management signals on Monday, and the scale of subsequent TGA bond purchases remains the biggest variable hanging over the dollar. Overall, if the $80,000 mark can hold and volume growth is confirmed, this round of rally will truly open up space; Before this, every breakthrough was accompanied by equally severe drawdown risks.