The Countdown To The 'Economical Normandy Landings' Begins: The U.S. Reveals Its 'Toughest Sanctions In History' On Iran Tonight

According to Becent's signal, the core of these sanctions is secondary sanctions—not directly targeting Iran, but targeting any country or company continuing to do business with Iran, with a focus on three types of activities: purchasing Iranian oil, transferring remittances to Iran, and ship-to-ship shipping of Iranian crude oil. On August 23, Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezai revealed a counter card: "If the economic war continues, not a drop of oil will flow out of the Strait of Hormuz or even the Persian Gulf."

Interestingly, before the sanctions hit, the oil market had already cast a vote of no confidence: on August 24, Brent crude fell 1% to $93.45 per barrel, and WTI dropped 1.06% to $86.14—on the eve of the "toughest sanctions in history" countdown, investors chose not to rush to buy but to take profits.

A "Financial All-Out Offensive" Borrowing the 1943 Story

Beckent's FT column is filled with rhetoric like a mobilization order. He cited the 1943 Tehran Conference, where Allied generals finalized the direction of the Normandy landings and raised the same core question: "How to exert maximum pressure on the enemy."

His answer was very straightforward. In his column, he said the Trump administration's goal is to "cut off every economic lifeline supporting this brutal regime until Tehran is left isolated"; In a previous CNBC interview, he was even more direct: "Either stand with us or be against us." We want to crush the economy of this regime."

His logic is a "combination punch": the maritime blockade has already "greatly weakened" Iran's military capabilities, and now it has entered the "final stage." If the economic offensive succeeds, the U.S. "no longer needs to launch large-scale military operations." Becent also specifically pointed out Iran's "lifeline" — the riyal exchange rate is at historically weak levels, inflation is extremely high, and the regime has survived today thanks to some countries still "buying and transporting Iranian oil, facilitating capital flows through exchange agencies, and accepting flights to Iran."

The core of the new sanctions is secondary sanctions, and the Associated Press made it clear  —targeting companies, banks, and shipping companies from other countries: "Whoever buys Iranian oil suffers." And more than 80% of Iran's oil sold to China—a figure that Becent himself admitted. In fact, the "crackdown" targeting Chinese companies has already begun. According to reports, the U.S. State Department has placed a terminal operator in Qingdao on the sanctions list, citing its previous shipment of Iranian crude oil; The Treasury has targeted independent refineries in Shandong and Liaoning, with Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) singled out, and more than forty shipping companies and oil tankers have been blacklisted. In the past six months, the U.S. Treasury has updated its list almost monthly, frequently featuring Chinese and Hong Kong companies.

But one detail is worth noting: so far, only small and medium-sized entities have been passively affected, while several large Chinese banks have never been "killed." Bloomberg analysts have exposed this layer of maneuvering: the fragile economic and trade balance between China and the U.S. has not yet been broken, Chinese leaders plan to visit the U.S. in late September, and whether the White House dares to prioritize the economic war with Iran over its relationship with China is the real gamble.

Iran's card: Hormuz

Iran is not without cards. On August 23, Rezai declared "zero oil exports from the Persian Gulf" and warned that "any country participating in or supporting the U.S. economic war will be regarded as an enemy." On the same day, Iran's state-owned Persian Gulf Authority (PGSA) warned on social media that ships violating Iran's so-called "crossing arrangements" when passing through the Strait of Hormuz in the future may face "fines, detention, or confiscation."

Differentiated management and control have already emerged. CCTV cited experts pointing out that Iraq has repeatedly requested it, and Iran has already allowed some Iraqi oil tankers to obtain "special passage permits," marking the Strait of Hormuz entering a new phase of "differentiated control." Meanwhile, the U.S. destroyer USS John Finn continues to carry out maritime blockade missions in the Arabian Sea, with the U.S. side claiming to have intercepted 75 merchant ships.

No matter what details the press conference presents, one statistic has already become reality: according to commodity intelligence firm Kpler, since August 2026, Iran's average daily crude oil loading has plummeted to about 287,000 barrels, only one-seventh of the pre-war average of about 2 million barrels.

The gap between sanctions and blockades is being filled by Russia. According to the Financial Times citing Kepler data, India imported over 2.6 million barrels of Russian crude oil daily in June and July, a significant increase from the February low of about 1 million barrels, accounting for more than half of its daily imports.

Market reaction

The "harshest sanctions in history" have caused oil prices to fall instead of rising. The analysis offers three reasons: First, the de facto blockade in Hormuz has lasted for nearly six months, and geopolitical risk pricing has long been adequate; Second, Iran's economy has been under sanctions for many years, and the marginal effect of new sanctions is diminishing; Third, and the deepest layer, as long as China continues to purchase Iranian oil, the impact of the sanctions will be diminished.

More subtle signals come from within Iran. CNN reported that Iranian President Pezeshiziyan stated that "war cannot be fought like this forever" and defended the agreement reached with the United States in June, although the top leadership remained cautious. On one side are external sanctions intensifying; on the other, internal divisions are emerging. Iranian Foreign Minister Alagazi has characterized the U.S. move as "desperation rather than strength."

There are only two points worth watching at this press conference: first, whether the details of the sanctions exceed expectations—if they target key buyers like China, oil prices could rebound rapidly; If it is just a "repetition of old themes," the oil market's lukewarm response will continue. Second, whether there is a statement naming China will directly determine whether this "economic Normandy landing" is a real landing or a performance where the market sees through its trump cards.