美元:市场情绪对防御性货币施加压力 – 荷兰国际集团
荷兰国际集团(ING)的弗朗切斯科-佩索莱(Francesco Pesole)指出,强劲的英伟达财报和活跃的股市支撑了高贝塔货币,并对美元施加了压力,只有日元在G10中表现更差。油价的适度回落和稳定的地缘政治风险定价也限制了避险需求。佩索莱预计今天美元会有所稳定,但仍然看到下行风险,因为市场仍然倾向于非防御性外汇。

荷兰国际集团(ING)的弗朗切斯科-佩索莱(Francesco Pesole)指出,强劲的英伟达财报和活跃的股市支撑了高贝塔货币,并对美元施加了压力,只有日元在G10中表现更差。油价的适度回落和稳定的地缘政治风险定价也限制了避险需求。佩索莱预计今天美元会有所稳定,但仍然看到下行风险,因为市场仍然倾向于非防御性外汇。

风险偏好压制避险货币

“改善的市场情绪在过去24小时内对美元施加了压力,只有日元在昨天的G10中遭受了更大的打击。油价的适度回落也在发挥作用,市场没有理由对地缘政治升级进行定价。”

“Polymarket对美国在3月底之前对伊朗发动攻击的概率——最近油价的最准确驱动因素——在几天内稳定在约60%。在这个阶段,任何升级看起来都是更广泛美元反弹的最可能催化剂,考虑到英伟达财报的安抚作用以及缺乏重大数据发布。”

“总体而言,我们今天可能会看到美元的稳定,尽管一些下行风险仍然存在,因为英伟达财报的积极溢出效应可能会使市场在防御性货币上保持偏离更长时间。”

(本文由人工智能工具生成,并由编辑审核。)

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