160.00 under bullish pressure: USD/JPY Price Forecast as intervention risks mount

• Further Fed rate-hike expectations underpin the US Dollar, but fears of Japanese intervention constrain the USD/JPY advance.
• Above the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, USD/JPY maintains its breakout from the recent trading range.
• Near 64, the RSI signals solid upward momentum alongside a positive MACD.

160.00 remains the focus for USD/JPY on Friday. The pair is little changed near that level, with the threat of Japanese intervention containing the upside despite US Dollar (USD) strength. Its advance this week stands at 0.91%, putting it on course for a third consecutive weekly rise. Increasing expectations of further Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes continue to keep the US-Japan yield differential favourable to the Dollar.

Preserving an “orderly foreign exchange market,” would remain a government priority, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on Friday. She added that Japan continues to maintain close contact with US financial authorities.

Yen upside limited as Japan’s rates converge

Expected Bank of Japan tightening is unlikely to offer much near-term support to the currency, according to Commerzbank analysts. They write: “While we also expect the Bank of Japan to implement two further rate rises – in December and in spring next year – this no longer favours the Japanese yen. Rather, it signals a convergence between the central banks, which will likely have little impact on the currency,”

With this in mind, Commerzbank says “we see little potential for the Japanese yen in the near future,” and observes that “in recent days, the yen has already weakened slightly due to rising market expectations regarding the Fed, and is currently trading just below USD-JPY 160.” Its outlook for the coming quarters now allows for only modest gains: “by the middle of next year, we now expect only a slight appreciation towards 155.”

USD/JPY technical outlook

After a strong recovery from September’s 152.89 low, USD/JPY consolidated within a tight range. A fresh advance has now carried it beyond that range and above the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), at 158.97 and 158.74 respectively.

At 160.00, a horizontal barrier just above the current price provides immediate resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is strengthening around 64, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains positive. Both indicators support the upward momentum and reinforce, rather than contradict, the constructive price structure.

A sustained move through the first resistance at 160.00 would bring 161.00 and 162.00 into view, with selling pressure likely to return at those levels. Below the market, initial buying interest is expected around the current area, supported by the 100-day SMA at 158.97 and the 200-day SMA at 158.74. Further support lies at the 50-day SMA near 157.44, followed by the horizontal base at 156.00.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)