• USD/CHF extends gains at year-to date highs, as risk aversion boosts demand for the safe-haven Dollar.
• A sell-off in stock markets and cracks in the US-Iran peace deal are weighing on market sentiment.
• Dollar bulls are heading for the mid-August and November 2025 highs, in the area of 0.8130.

The US Dollar (USD) extends its rally against the Swiss Franc (CHF) for the sixth consecutive day on Wednesday, as a tech rout in stock markets and the first cracks in the US-Iran peace deal have boosted demand for the safe-haven USD. The pair has broken the late November 2025 high at the 0.8100 area and is aiming for the tops of November and August last year, at 0.8124 and 0.8132, respectively.

The US Dollar is drawing support from the risk-averse sentiment following a sharp sell-off in tech stocks, amid growing concerns about the massive spending on AI. Beyond that, Iran has shown its disagreement about the nuclear inspections proposed by US negotiators, which clouds the final stage of the peace talks and the reopening of the key Strait of Hormuz.

In the economic docket, the Swiss Economic Expectations Survey, due later on the day, will provide further insight into the country’s outlook. In the US, the New Home Sales release for May is the only event worth mentioning, although the highlight of the week is Thursday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data.

Technical Analysis: Momentum indicators hint at a stretched rally

USD/CHF maintains a solid bullish trend, trading at 0.8115, yet with momentum indicators reflecting overbought conditions. The 14-period Relative Strength Index in 4-hour charts is at 74, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned slightly negative, hinting that upside momentum is stretched even as the broader structure stays underpinned.

Bulls are likely to find resistance in the area between 0.8124 and 0.8432, the November and mid-August 2025 highs, respectively. Above here, the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the May-June rally, at 0.8150, and the August 2025 top, at 0.8170, emerge as the next targets.

A bearish correction, on the other hand, is likely to find support at Tuesday's low of 0.8740, which is coincident with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the mentioned cycle. Further down, the previous highs, at 0.8040, would come into focus.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)