Australian Dollar stays flat ahead of RBA rate decision

Market braces for Tuesday's Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision.
A hold at 4.35% is all but priced, so Governor Bullock's tone will decide the Aussie's next leg.
US CPI on Wednesday could revive Federal Reserve hike bets and lift the Greenback.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades near the 0.7060 level against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, giving back a little ground after six straight weeks of gains.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to keep the cash rate at 4.35%. A run of increases earlier in 2026 lifted the rate from 3.60%, and the Board has said it will hike again if needed. What the market wants to know is whether that door is still open or whether the peak is now in. This is a meeting in which the decision lands with a fresh set of forecasts in the Statement on Monetary Policy. Governor Michelle Bullock will speak shortly after the release as usual.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

The United States (US) July Nonfarm Payrolls released on Friday shocked with a fall of 23,000 jobs against forecasts for an 80,000 gain, and the Unemployment Rate ticked down to 4.1% only because the labor force shrank. The weak print cut the odds of a September Federal Reserve (Fed) hike and pressured the Dollar, which helped the Aussie hold up through the recent run higher.

US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday is the test of that. A hot July reading would put a September hike back on the table and hand the USD a reason to firm, squeezing AUD/USD. A soft one keeps the Fed on hold and leaves the Aussie with room to hold its recent range. Between Bullock on Tuesday and the US inflation print the next day, the pair has two clear catalysts within 48 hours.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7063, maintaining a modest bullish tone as it holds above both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7050 and the 100-period SMA at 0.7007. The pair is hovering just under nearby resistance, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 59 suggests firm but not overextended upside momentum.

On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at 0.7064, with a break higher exposing the next barrier at 0.7070. On the downside, initial support is aligned at 0.7057, followed by 0.7054, while deeper pullbacks would look toward the 20-period and 100-period SMAs as broader trend supports.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)