Bitcoin Price Forecast: Can BTC withstand pressure as weekly ETF outflows reach $1.28 billion?

• Pressure on Bitcoin persists on Monday as it trades below the 50-week SMA near $75,222, having closed beneath the average last week to register a fifth consecutive weekly loss.
• Net withdrawals from US-listed spot ETFs reached $1.28 billion last week, their largest weekly outflow since the end of June.
• Risk assets, including BTC, faced pressure as stronger-than-anticipated jobs data bolstered expectations that the Fed could maintain higher interest rates for longer.

Selling pressure continues to weigh on Bitcoin (BTC) on Monday, with the cryptocurrency trading beneath its 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $75,222 following five successive weeks of losses. Last week’s $1.28 billion net outflow from spot BTC Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), the largest weekly withdrawal since late June, deepened the bearish mood. Adding to the pressure on the Crypto King, stronger-than-forecast jobs data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could leave interest rates higher for longer.

What does the largest weekly outflow since late June signal?

Demand from institutional Bitcoin investors softened last week, with SoSoValue reporting $1.28 billion in net withdrawals from BTC spot ETFs. This was the largest weekly outflow since the end of June and the second consecutive week of withdrawals, pointing to declining investor demand. Should outflows persist and gather pace through this week, BTC could come under further pressure and enter a deeper price correction.

How are macroeconomic conditions restraining BTC?

Risk assets came under pressure from the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release, as US payrolls exceeded expectations and strengthened the view that the Fed could maintain higher interest rates for longer. Holding non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin carries a greater opportunity cost when rates are high. Higher rates can also tighten financial conditions and curb investors’ willingness to take on riskier investments. 

The CME FedWatch tool chart shows that traders now assign about an 80.5% probability to a Fed rate increase in December, compared with 72.8% before the US jobs report. Against this macroeconomic backdrop, BTC’s prospects for recovery could remain under pressure.

Bitcoin technical outlook: Where could BTC head after losing key support?

A 4.47% decline last week took the Crypto King below the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $75,222 at the close, delivering a fifth consecutive week of losses. At the start of this week on Monday, BTC trades around $74,984, still beneath this 50-week SMA.

A continuation of BTC’s correction could bring the 200-week SMA at $68,031 into view.

Bullish momentum appears to be fading, with the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48, under the neutral threshold of 50. Although the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is still positive, its bars are shrinking. The signals indicate that the broader upward momentum has not broken down but is weakening as nearby resistance and the continuing correction weigh on it.

Alternatively, a rebound in BTC could carry it towards the 50-week SMA at $75,222. Closing above that level and sustaining the move could open the way for a recovery towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $78,661, measured from the August 2024 low of $49,000 to the October 2025 record high of $126,199. 

Trading below the major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) keeps BTC’s near-term daily outlook bearish. The closest hurdle is the 200-day EMA at $76,458. Above it, the 100-day EMA at $77,624 and the 50-day EMA at $79,305 form further layers of resistance, reinforcing the substantial overhead pressure. 

An RSI reading near 36 also points to weaker daily momentum. With the MACD remaining negative and below zero, advances towards these overhead levels are likely to encounter selling pressure.

Any upward move would first face the 200-day EMA near $76,458, with the 100-day EMA at $77,624 providing the next resistance. Beyond these levels, a more sustained recovery would aim for the 50-day EMA at $79,307 before approaching the horizontal hurdle around $85,000.

With no nearby support identified on the chart, a break below current levels would suggest a move towards the psychological support area near $70,000 before BTC stabilises.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)