20: Bitcoin Bull Score declines as USDT supply contracts – CryptoQuant

• 20 is the latest reading for Bitcoin’s Bull Score Index. Several market indicators have shifted into bearish territory, fuelling concerns over a deeper correction.
• 284,000 BTC was the contraction in the leading cryptocurrency’s apparent demand over 30 days, its steepest decline since March 2025.
• $6.6 billion was erased from Tether’s USDT market capitalisation over 60 days, its biggest contraction since mid-2022.

A simultaneous bearish shift across Bitcoin’s (BTC) market indicators has heightened concerns about a deeper correction for the leading cryptocurrency. That risk persists despite historical parallels with earlier market bottoms.

April 2025 low revisited as Bitcoin Bull Score Index slides

From 90 on October 13, CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index fell to 20 in less than four weeks. The firm’s report, published Wednesday, described a sharp weakening in market conditions.

April 2025 saw the previous comparable fall, triggered by a tariff-related market sell-off. The index likewise reached 20 then, before rebounding to 80 within two months as Bitcoin formed a local bottom.

Several factors are driving the present downturn, the firm warned. These include profit-taking after September’s rally, a more hawkish outlook from the Federal Reserve (Fed), the Binance hack and the Republicans’ midterm defeat.

The report stated: "The April 2025 collapse had a single cause and reversed as soon as the tariff news faded. This one is broader, which argues for a slower repair,"

Over 30 days, Bitcoin’s apparent demand shrank by 284,000 BTC, its sharpest decline since March 28, 2025. Comparable contractions in March 2025 and June-July 2026 accompanied local market bottoms, CryptoQuant noted. The contraction totalled 309,000 BTC in March 2025, compared with 273,000 BTC in June 2026.

Absent US buying pressure could impede a recovery, the firm highlighted. Over the past 30 days, the Coinbase Premium Index has stayed negative, averaging -0.14%.

CryptoQuant wrote: "In both earlier episodes the premium turned positive before or as demand recovered; US buyers led the bottom. That has not happened yet,"

A $6.6 billion fall in Tether’s USDT market capitalisation over 60 days also points to weakening stablecoin liquidity. This is the largest contraction in CryptoQuant’s available data, which extends back to mid-2022, the firm said.

By comparison, the contraction after the FTX collapse in December 2022 amounted to $3.2 billion, less than the current decline.

The firm noted: "This is the first time in the current cycle that USDT supply, apparent demand and the Bull Score have all been at or near their lows at once,"

With rallies in the current cycle dependent on stablecoin growth for fresh liquidity, a shrinking stablecoin supply could reduce the likelihood of a Bitcoin recovery, CryptoQuant warned.

CryptoQuant noted: “Stablecoin supply is the dry powder of the crypto market; when it shrinks, new demand for Bitcoin has to come from somewhere else,”

365-day moving average breached as Bitcoin retreats

$76,400, Bitcoin’s 365-day moving average, has also been breached to the downside. CryptoQuant regards this as a bearish signal. Attention now turns to the 200-day moving average at $73,200 as the next key support. Regaining the 365-day average would help re-establish Bitcoin’s bullish market structure, the firm noted.

CryptoQuant wrote: “The 365-day average is itself declining, falling about $40 a day, so reclaiming it gets slightly easier each week the price holds,”

A continued retreat towards or below the 200-day average could reinforce the case for a deeper correction, CryptoQuant cautioned.

The report added: “The 200-day moving average at $73.2K is the level that separates a shallow correction from a deeper one,”

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $74,400 after gaining 1.3% over the past 24 hours.