RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets updates its Brent crude outlook as it assumes the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for several more months, potentially reopening in September. The bank highlights dwindling global inventories, stronger competition for alternative supplies and rising demand destruction. It now expects Brent prices to average $120/bbl in Q3 and $100/bbl in Q4 2026 before easing in 2027.

Brent forecast raised on supply disruption

"Our new baseline assumes the Strait of Hormuz will be closed for several more months, with a September opening looking like a more realistic timeline."

"The repercussions of this for energy markets are significant. Futures markets will likely continue to ignore the actual supply reality of what an extended closure means – notably dwindling global inventories, a scramble for alternative supplies at higher prices as competition intensifies and slowly intensifying demand destruction across the board."

"We are therefore raising our price forecast for key energy markets to reflect the prolonged supply disruption on the ground. For Brent crude we now forecast prices to average $120/bbl in Q3 and $100/bbl in Q4 2026 before falling back below $100/bbl throughout 2027."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)