Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen highlights that Copper’s supply surplus has widened to about 300,000 tons early this year as production expanded while demand stagnated. February saw a notable demand drop with prices near USD 13,000 per ton. The bank argues that recent rapid price gains and elevated energy costs limit Copper’s short‑term upside potential.

Surplus and weak demand cap rally

"Data from the monthly report now shows that in the first two months of this year, the supply surplus actually increased by more than 100,000 tons compared to the previous year, reaching approximately 300,000 tons."

"However, the trend shows that while demand rose slightly in January, February saw a significant decline. The high price level - with copper trading around USD 13,000 per ton, nearly 40% higher than in February of the previous year - likely played a role here."

"The rapid price recovery in recent weeks, coupled with ongoing uncertainty due to persistently high energy prices, does not bode well for future demand trends. Therefore, we view the further upside potential for copper as limited, at least in the short term."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)