Can Bitcoin break out of the $77,000 to $80,000 range as spot demand lags?

• Bitcoin’s recovery remains exposed to fresh selling, with Bitfinex pointing to passive buying in the $77,000-$80,000 support zone and resistance near $81,300.
• Derivatives exposure continued to build as Bitcoin futures open interest rose 12.1% to 694,728 BTC, even as the price fell 5.3%.
• An improvement in Bitcoin’s outlook requires a move back above $80,000 backed by spot demand and ETF inflows, Wintermute cautioned.

Weak spot demand could leave Bitcoin (BTC) rangebound between $77,000 and $80,000 in the near term, according to crypto exchange Bitfinex. Any advance towards $81,300 is likely to encounter selling pressure.

Can Bitcoin’s recovery overcome resistance near $81K?

The $77,000 to $80,000 support zone continues to constrain Bitcoin’s immediate outlook, exchange analysts said in Bitfinex Alpha’s Tuesday assessment. Investors acquired roughly 1.05 million BTC in this range, compared with 738,000 BTC on 28 October. Yet most buying in the zone appears passive — existing bids are absorbing sell orders — leaving Bitcoin exposed to another bout of selling pressure.

Bitfinex described the buying as follows: “The current buying we are seeing inside the $77-80,000 band is passive, not aggressive,”

Investors seeking to exit their positions could cap further upside at $81,300, the next major resistance level.

Further volatility is also signalled by the options market. Implied price moves indicate a possible $74,400 to $81,750 trading range through the 6 November expiry.

Despite the leading cryptocurrency’s recent price retreat, capital has continued flowing into Bitcoin derivatives.

By 31 October, aggregate futures open interest had reached 694,728 BTC, a 12.1% rise from its 12 October low, although Bitcoin’s price declined 5.3%. Positive funding rates persisted as well, touching annualised levels of 17% on some major perpetual futures exchanges during the 30 October sell-off. According to Bitfinex, this indicates that leveraged traders kept positioning for a rebound despite weaker prices.

Spot demand, by contrast, has lagged. On 30 October, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) registered outflows of $643.2 million, their biggest single-day withdrawal since 25 June.

After combined inflows of $6.36 billion over July, August and September, these withdrawals left October as the first month since June to record net ETF outflows.

Without sustained aggressive purchases in the spot market, Bitcoin’s recovery could stay stalled, Bitfinex cautioned.

Can Bitcoin reclaim $80K and strengthen its outlook?

A better near-term outlook for Bitcoin still hinges on its ability to regain $80,000 and stay above it, trading firm Wintermute said in its Tuesday assessment.

Pointing to a lack of evidence that fresh money is entering spot markets during the recent rebound, the firm retained its cautious stance.

Wintermute set out the condition for changing that stance: "We would stop being short-term cautious if Bitcoin reclaims $80K and holds it with the bid coming from spot and ETF flow,"

Near $76,800, Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average provides the next key support, the firm said. Downside risks would rise if the price were to remain below that level.

Pressure on the market persists following the $6.3 billion Binance security breach late Thursday, Wintermute added. Roughly $1.5 billion in liquidations followed the incident, with leveraged long positions accounting for around 85% of the total.

The initial buying on the decline was concentrated in perpetual futures rather than spot markets, according to Wintermute, leaving the rebound short of sufficient fresh spot demand.

The firm added: “Bitcoin has lost [the] $80K level. And while not for the macro reasons we flagged, the market still feels heavy post the $1.5b liquidation on the back of Binance last week,”

At the time of writing, BTC stands at $77,660, a gain of 0.2% over the past 24 hours.