Three-year low tested: Dogecoin Price Forecast as DOGE selling pressure intensifies

• October 2023 levels return as Dogecoin extends its slide.
• Despite a sustained fall in futures open interest, traders are increasingly choosing to maintain their long positions.
• Sellers retain the near-term advantage as Dogecoin remains oversold, although a return of bullish momentum could shift the balance.

$0.0650 is Dogecoin’s (DOGE) approximate trading level on Thursday. The coin is moving lower as sellers strengthen their control. The downside remains the path of least resistance for the largest meme coin by market capitalisation, as well as for major cryptocurrencies Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP).

A daily loss of about 2.6% has brought DOGE back to levels last recorded in October 2023. Continued technical deterioration underpins the bearish outlook, with subdued momentum indicators and falling moving averages.

Across the wider market, the $6.3 billion Binance hack has weighed on prices as interest in crypto-related investment products has suffered a sharp setback recently. Thursday’s crypto Fear and Greed Index reading of 28 remained in Fear territory, only slightly below the previous day’s 29, eroding risk appetite.

$888 million open interest: Dogecoin derivatives weaken despite positive weighted funding rate

Thursday’s average perpetual futures open interest (OI) fell to $888 million from $923 million a day earlier, highlighting a marked deterioration in Dogecoin’s derivatives market.

On November 1, OI was $1 billion, compared with $1.5 billion on October 1. This measure tracks the notional value of unsettled futures contracts. Its sustained decline suggests investor interest has continued to weaken alongside Dogecoin’s falling price.

At 0.0016%, however, Dogecoin’s OI-weighted funding rate is still positive. This suggests traders holding long positions remain prepared to pay premium fees to retain them. Holding above short-term support at $0.0640 could therefore encourage traders to increase their exposure, improving the prospects of a recovery.

$0.0648: Dogecoin probes multi-year lows in technical analysis

At $0.0648, Dogecoin is extending its losses far beneath every key Exponential Moving Average (EMA), strengthening the near-term bearish outlook. Resistance is layered above the price at the 50-day EMA of $0.0784, the 100-day EMA of $0.0812 and the 200-day EMA of $0.0885. Meanwhile, the SuperTrend at $0.0769 limits recovery attempts.

An oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 27 underscores weak momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also below zero with a negative crossover. Together, these signals indicate sustained selling pressure, although brief corrective rebounds remain a risk for the pair.

Any rebound would first encounter the SuperTrend resistance near $0.0769, before reaching the 50-day EMA at $0.0784 and the 100-day EMA at $0.0812, where further gains would likely prove difficult. Beyond these levels, the 200-day EMA around $0.0885 presents a more substantial obstacle. A move back above it would be needed to ease the broader bearish structure.

Immediate structural support sits around the current price of $0.0648. A decisive break below this zone would open the way to further losses. With RSI oversold and MACD negative, any relief rally from here could be constrained while the price remains below the combined EMA and SuperTrend resistance.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)