“We don’t need a deal with Iran”, US President Donald Trump says on Truth Social

The US does not need an agreement with Iran, US President Donald Trump said on Thursday. The statement appeared in one of several Truth Social posts. In that post, he also said he had directed Vice President JD Vance to concentrate on what he characterised as widespread crime and corruption across Democratic-led cities and states.

Before Trump’s comments, The Wall Street Journal had reported that Vance was considering in-person talks with senior Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei to seek an end to the war. Discussions remained at a preliminary stage, with no date agreed.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Trump’s Statement on Truth Social

I have asked Vice President Vance to focus his complete and total attention on the Massive Corruption and Crime taking place in Democrat run Cities and States throughout the U.S. The Blue States, such as Minnesota, California, Illinois, and many more, are all poorly run, corrupt disasters. Billions of Dollars is being stolen each and every month. Our Budget could be quickly BALANCED with the correction of this large scale criminal activity. CORRUPTION is in the Democrat Leadership’s blood! We don’t need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed. We’ve got their money, Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, and we’ve got their Strait! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DJT

More than 1% higher on the day, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at around $86.40 a barrel after Trump’s comments prompted a reversal of earlier losses.

Risk Sentiment: Key Questions

Market sentiment: what distinguishes “risk-on” from “risk-off”?

Investors’ willingness to accept risk over a given period is commonly described in financial markets as “risk-on” or “risk-off”. Optimism about the outlook defines a “risk-on” market, encouraging purchases of riskier assets. Concern about the future produces a “risk-off” market: investors take a more cautious approach and favour lower-risk assets offering greater certainty of a return, even if that return is relatively modest.

Risk sentiment indicators: which assets matter most?

A positive growth outlook typically lifts equities and most commodities, excluding gold, during “risk-on” periods. Higher demand also supports the currencies of major commodity-exporting countries, while cryptocurrencies advance. By contrast, “risk-off” conditions favour bonds, particularly major government bonds. Gold performs strongly, alongside safe-haven currencies including the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and US dollar.

“Risk-on” markets: which currencies tend to gain?

Commodity-exporting economies rely heavily on those exports for growth, making their currencies typical beneficiaries of “risk-on” markets. These include the Australian dollar (AUD), Canadian dollar (CAD), New Zealand dollar (NZD) and less widely traded currencies such as the rouble (RUB) and South African rand (ZAR). Commodity prices tend to increase in these periods as investors anticipate that stronger economic activity will generate greater future demand for raw materials.

“Risk-off” markets: which currencies tend to gain?

Demand for safety during “risk-off” periods tends to support three major currencies: the US dollar (USD), Japanese yen (JPY) and Swiss franc (CHF). The dollar benefits from its status as the world’s reserve currency and from crisis-driven purchases of US government debt. Investors regard that debt as safe because the world’s largest economy is considered unlikely to default. The yen draws support from stronger demand for Japanese government bonds, a high proportion of which are held by domestic investors unlikely to sell them off even during a crisis. For the Swiss franc, the appeal lies in Switzerland’s strict banking laws, which provide investors with enhanced capital protection.