ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report that Copper prices have softened as LME inventories jump to a 16‑month high, suggesting supply is outpacing demand. They link the build to changing regional pricing incentives between LME and Comex and warn that continued stock increases could leave Copper vulnerable to further consolidation unless Chinese restocking emerges.

LME stock build pressures near term

"Copper prices softened on Thursday as a sharp rise in exchange inventories reinforced concerns that supply is outpacing demand. LME copper fell around 1.2% to settle near $12,900/t, while stocks tracked by the exchange jumped almost 8% on the day to a 16‑month high."

"The inventory build reflects strong inflows into LME warehouses, driven by shifting regional pricing incentives. LME copper has been trading at only a narrow premium to Comex, reversing last year’s structure that encouraged metal to flow into US warehouses."

"As these pricing signals normalise, metal is increasingly being redirected back into global exchange stocks."

"The inventory surge creates a tougher near‑term backdrop for prices. The key things to watch are whether LME stocks continue to build at this pace, the evolution of LME–Comex spreads, and signs of restocking from China once price pressure eases—all of which will determine whether copper can stabilise or remains vulnerable to further consolidation."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)