Dogecoin Price Forecast: Can DOGE defend its three-year low as selling pressure intensifies?

• Selling pressure continues to weigh on Dogecoin, pushing the meme coin back to levels last recorded in October 2023.
• Despite a sustained fall in futures Open Interest, traders are increasingly choosing to retain their long positions.
• Sellers retain the near-term advantage as Dogecoin remains oversold, although a resurgence in buying could shift the balance in favour of the bulls.

Bears are strengthening their hold on Dogecoin (DOGE), which is trading lower near $0.0650 on Thursday. Downside remains the path of least resistance for the largest meme coin by market capitalisation, as well as for major cryptocurrencies Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP).

A loss of about 2.6% on the day has brought DOGE back to levels last recorded in October 2023. Weak momentum indicators and falling moving averages reflect the sustained technical deterioration underpinning this bearish outlook.

Risk appetite across the wider crypto market has also suffered, with interest in crypto-related investment products taking a substantial hit recently as the $6.3 billion Binance hack weighs on prices. On Thursday, the crypto Fear and Greed Index stood at 28 in Fear territory, only marginally below the previous day's 29, further dampening appetite for risk.

Can a positive weighted funding rate ease pressure on Dogecoin derivatives?

A sharp deterioration in Dogecoin derivatives activity saw perpetual futures Open Interest (OI) average $888 million on Thursday, compared with $923 million a day earlier.

The measure, which captures the notional value of unsettled futures contracts, was $1 billion on November 1 and $1.5 billion on October 1. Its steady decline alongside Dogecoin's falling price suggests a persistent loss of investor interest.

In contrast, a positive OI-weighted funding rate of 0.0016% indicates that Dogecoin long traders remain willing to pay a premium to maintain their positions. Holding above short-term support at $0.0640 could therefore encourage traders to add exposure, improving the prospects of a recovery.

Technical analysis: Can Dogecoin find support at multi-year lows?

At $0.0648, Dogecoin continues to slide well below all key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), strengthening the near-term bearish outlook. Overhead resistance is layered at the 50-day EMA of $0.0784, the 100-day EMA of $0.0812 and the 200-day EMA of $0.0885. Meanwhile, the SuperTrend at $0.0769 limits attempts at a recovery.

An oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 27 highlights the weak momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also below zero with a negative crossover, pointing to continued selling pressure, although the pair remains susceptible to brief corrective rebounds.

Any rebound would first encounter the SuperTrend resistance near $0.0769, before reaching the 50-day EMA at $0.0784 and the 100-day EMA at $0.0812, where further progress would likely prove difficult. Beyond these levels, the 200-day EMA around $0.0885 presents a more substantial barrier; reclaiming it would be necessary to ease the broader bearish structure.

Immediate structural support sits in the current trading zone near $0.0648, with a decisive break below opening the door to further losses. The oversold RSI and negative MACD suggest that any relief rally from this zone could be limited for as long as prices remain below the cluster of EMA and SuperTrend resistance levels.

(An AI tool assisted in writing the technical analysis for this article. Learn more.)