Ripple Price Forecast: XRP recovery potential remains constrained despite pause in correction

• Recovery prospects weaken for XRP even as it stays just above the crucial $1.00 support.
• A three-month low of $189 million marks the latest decline in Binance XRP futures open interest.
• Bulls gain some near-term respite as XRP remains above weekly SuperTrend support, although the wider technical picture stays bearish.

A pause in selling pressure has brought some calm to Ripple (XRP), mirroring the broader cryptocurrency market's respite after recent turbulence. The token trades near $1.06 on Wednesday as its correction pauses. Beneath the remittance token, a firm support zone stretches from $0.94 to the prevailing market price, but structural barriers, including key moving averages, continue to constrain its recovery potential.

What Does Binance XRP Open Interest at $189M Signal?

Risk appetite has weakened as XRP futures open interest (OI) on Binance dropped to a three-month low of $189 million on Wednesday, according to a report published on CryptoQuant. By comparison, OI on the same exchange averaged $182 million in August.

Meanwhile, XRP open interest on Bybit rose from $229 million on August 2 to $255 million. On OKX, XRP derivatives volumes stood at approximately $46 million as of November 11.

With XRP trading around $1.06, combined open interest across Binance, Bybit and OKX has risen to about $490 million. Derivatives exposure therefore remains uneven across the major exchanges: Binance has returned to levels last seen in early August, whereas Bybit retains a relatively larger outstanding position.

Weak futures OI is also consistent with the Fear & Greed Index reading of 29 on Wednesday, placing it in Fear territory and slightly below the previous day's 32. Last month, by contrast, the index averaged 69 in Greed territory, with the shift weighing on already diminishing investor appetite.

Technical analysis: Can XRP maintain its key support?

The bearish phase remains firmly in place for XRP at $1.06, with the price substantially below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), grouped roughly between $1.28 and $1.35. Further reinforcing the downside bias is the SuperTrend indicator at $1.22, above the current market price. At about 24, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is moving deeper into oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays negative. Together, these indicators point to bearish momentum that remains persistent but stretched.

The first upside hurdle is the SuperTrend level around $1.22, followed by a closely packed group of EMAs. Within that cluster, the 50-day EMA stands at $1.28, while a nearby descending resistance trendline at $1.29 adds selling pressure. Further resistance comes from the 100-day EMA at $1.30 and the longer-term 200-day EMA at $1.35; reclaiming these levels would be necessary to soften the prevailing bearish outlook. With no clearly established support beneath the spot price, the pair remains exposed to further declines until new demand materialises.

Weekly indicators also retain a bearish tilt. The spot price is substantially below the 50-week, 100-week and 200-week EMAs at $1.46, $1.55 and $1.37, respectively, leaving a broad band of overhead resistance. Adding to that supply is a long-standing descending trendline drawn from previous cycle highs, which projects to around $1.44.

Should sellers tighten their grip, the weekly SuperTrend line near $0.94 provides initial technical support and the first significant demand zone. A recovery, meanwhile, would initially have to test the 200-week EMA around $1.37 before confronting the descending trendline near $1.44. A sustained move above both would bring the higher EMA cluster into view: the 50-week EMA at $1.46, followed by the 100-week EMA around $1.55. These subsequent resistance levels are likely to restrain gains on their first tests.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)